Thursday, April 24, 2008

Links for 04-25-2007

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Links for 04-23-2008

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

The Best Simple Explanation to the Monty Hall Problem

The Monty Hall problem is always good for an argument. For me, though, the basic version is pretty straightforward. Well, after I found the right way to visualize it anyway. (Basically if he knows where the prize is and will always open one of his two doors without the prize, you're effectively being given the opportunity to trade your one door for his two.) However, the question of whether the assumption that Monty knows where the prize is affects the benefit of switching. It does and it's not intuitive--at least to me. The below comment does a good job of succinctly explaining.

There are a lot of people arguing that Monte not knowing still makes it worth switching. It doesn't. Here's why. (From here on I'm spelling it Monty.) If Monty knows, the possibilities are:
1. You picked car. Monty opens a goat. Switching bad.
2. You picked goat A. Monty opens a goat. Switching good.
3. You picked goat B. Monty opens a goat. Switching good.

Two good switch, one bad switch. 2/3 chance it's worth switching.

If Monty doesn't know, the possibilities are:
1. You picked car. Monty opens Goat A. Switching bad.
2. You picked car. Monty opens Goat B. Switching bad.
3. You picked goat A. Monty opens Goat B. Switching good.
4. You picked goat A. Monty opens car. No switch option.
5. You picked goat B. Monty opes Goat A. Switching good.
6. You picked goat B. Monty opens car. No switch option.

So in this case there is 2/6 chance switching is bad, 2/6 chance switching is good, and 2/6 chance you don't have the option to switch. If you *do* have the option, that leaves you 2/4 and 2/4 good or bad. (Fractions not minimised to avoid confusing people.)

Posted by: RavenBlack | April 15, 2008 at 05:56 PM

Monday, April 21, 2008

Links for 04-21-2008

I'm trying out ma.gnolia.com as an alternative to del.icio.us. One advantage is that it doesn't truncate notes at a fairly limited character count. While twitter-ish enforced brevity isn't necessarily a bad thing for some of us, having more spce to play with can be handy sometimes.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Links for 04-18-2008

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Links for 04-16-2008

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Links for 04-10-2008

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Links for 04-09-2008

Monday, April 07, 2008

Links for 04-07-2008

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Links for 04-02-2008

The late winter/early spring travel craziness that I seem to have settled into the past few years is winding down so I should be shifting back into a more normal writing schedule.